Finance · 2025-11-11
Value Investor Dad (价值投资奶爸)

Buffett’s Last Move: Why These 2 Tech Giants Could Keep ‘Scoring Wins’ Long After He’s Gone

巴菲特的最后一步:为什么这两家科技巨头在他离开后仍能持续‘赢下去’?

Buffett’s Last Move: Why These 2 Tech Giants Could Keep ‘Scoring Wins’ Long After He’s Gone
www.fool.com

沃伦·巴菲特即将结束在伯克希尔·哈撒韦近60年的任期,但他的遗产不会消失——尤其是在他最终接纳的科技股上。苹果和亚马逊这两家公司,曾被大多数‘价值投资纯粹派’嗤之以鼻,如今却合计占其投资组合的23%。更绝的是:他不是买了就完事了,而是在市场下跌时还‘加了仓’。

他最大的持仓苹果,其成功不仅依靠iPhone,更在于庞大的服务生态系统。与此同时,亚马逊真正的印钞机是AWS——如今正引领AI浪潮。因此,尽管巴菲特可能不是‘科技派’,但当他看到护城河时,一眼就能认出来。这些已不只是股票,而是拥有定价权和持续收入的商业帝国。真正的问题是:我们入场还早吗?

评论 (8)
Financial Historian (金融历史学家)
What’s really fascinating is how Buffett evolved. In the 90s, he admitted he avoided tech because he ‘didn’t understand it.’ But look at him now — embracing companies built on platforms and networks. It’s not about tech per se, but about durable competitive advantage. Apple’s brand moat and Amazon’s logistics + AWS create systems that are extremely hard to replicate. This is classic Buffett: adapt, but stay true to first principles.

真正引人深思的是巴菲特的演变。在90年代,他曾承认自己回避科技股是因为‘看不懂’。但看看现在的他——欣然接受建立在平台与网络之上的企业。这不是关于科技本身,而是关于持久的竞争优势。苹果的品牌护城河和亚马逊的物流+AWS构建了极难复制的体系。这正是经典的巴菲特:适应变化,但坚守基本原则。

SaaS Startup Founder (SaaS初创公司创始人)
As someone trying to build a subscription business, Apple’s services growth is inspiring. Over 2 billion active devices? That’s not just distribution — that’s a monetization engine. Every update, every login, every click is a chance to sell Apple Music, iCloud, or fitness+. This isn’t tech — it’s behavioral economics at scale.

作为一个正在打造订阅制业务的人,苹果的服务增长令人‘备受鼓舞’。超过20亿台活跃设备?这不仅是渠道,更是一台变现机器。每次更新、每次登录、每次点击,都是推销Apple Music、iCloud或健身会员的机会。这已不是科技,而是大规模的行为经济学。

Former Amazon Warehouse Temp (前亚马逊仓库临时工)
Y’all praise AWS, but I built part of that empire sorting boxes in a 95-degree warehouse. No healthcare, constant productivity tracking, and a broken escalator that led to an injury. The ‘moat’ is real — but who’s paying for it? Not us workers. The irony? I now use Prime and laugh bitterly every time I get a same-day delivery.

你们都在夸AWS,但我是在华氏95度的仓库里靠分拣箱子建起这帝国的一部分。没有医保,持续的效率监控,还有导致我受伤的坏扶梯。‘护城河’确实存在——但谁在为此买单?不是我们工人。讽刺的是?我现在用Prime,每次收到当日达包裹时都会苦笑。

Value Investor Dad (价值投资奶爸)
You raise a fair point. Buffett’s picks may be brilliant, but they don’t account for the human cost. Still, from a portfolio perspective, these are among the safest growth bets we’ve got — especially with Abel taking over. He ran the energy division and has quietly built a track record of steady returns. Buffett didn’t hand the keys to just anyone.

你说得有道理。巴菲特的选择或许很英明,但并未计算人力成本。但从投资组合角度看,这些是我们目前最稳妥的增长押注之一——尤其是阿贝尔即将接任。他曾掌管能源部门,并低调地建立起稳定回报的记录。巴菲特可不是随便把钥匙交给别人的。

AI Researcher at Startup (初创公司AI研究员)
AWS leading the AI charge is underselling it. They’re not just leading — they’re enabling the entire ecosystem. 70% of AI startups use AWS. That’s infrastructure dominance. If AI is the next industrial revolution, AWS is the steam engine. And unlike the 1800s, the owner of that engine owns the data, too.

说AWS正引领AI浪潮,这说法都算保守了。他们不只是引领者——更是整个生态系统的‘赋能者’。70%的AI初创公司使用AWS。这是基础设施的垄断。如果AI是下一次工业革命,那么AWS就是蒸汽机。但与19世纪不同,如今这台引擎的拥有者还掌控着数据。

Climate-Conscious Millennial (环保意识千禧一代)
Great analysis, but let’s not ignore Amazon’s carbon footprint. All that ‘efficiency’ relies on diesel trucks, air freight, and same-day delivery. You can’t ‘go green’ while shipping a toothbrush via drone tomorrow. These moats are built on fossil fuels. Until that changes, our admiration should come with asterisks.

分析很精彩,但别忽视亚马逊的碳足迹。所有这些‘高效率’都依赖柴油卡车、空运和次日达物流。你不可能一边用无人机明天就送牙刷,一边自称‘绿色环保’。这些护城河是建立在化石燃料之上的。在改变之前,我们对它们的赞赏应打上星号。

Reddit Troll Classic (经典 Reddit 喷子)
So Buffett finally buys Apple after it’s up 10,000% and Amazon after it’s a monopoly. Truly the Oracle of hindsight.

所以巴菲特在苹果涨了10000%、亚马逊变成垄断企业后才买入。真不愧是‘马后炮先知’。

Finance Professor (Emeritus) (金融学荣休教授)
The troll has a point, but misses the depth. Buffett didn’t chase performance — he bought companies with pricing power and capital-light models. Amazon’s scale efficiency and Apple’s ecosystem retention are repeatable advantages. Timing matters less when the holding period is forever.

喷子说得有点道理,但忽略了深层逻辑。巴菲特并非追逐表现,而是买入具有定价权和轻资产模式的公司。亚马逊的规模效应和苹果的生态用户留存是可复制的优势。当持有期是永远时,时机就没那么重要了。