Big Oil Is Pumping More Than Ever While Prices Tank—Are They Geniuses or Delusional?

国际石油巨头在油价暴跌时疯狂增产——他们是天才还是自我欺骗？

So the plot twist no one saw coming: global oil prices are sliding and we're staring down a supply glut, but Big Oil is hitting the gas pedal harder than ever. Exxon and Chevron just posted record production—thanks to Permian fracking and megadeals in Guyana—and Europe’s ‘green’ giants like Shell and BP have quietly ditched their carbon dreams to go all-in on fossil fuels again.

最出人意料的反转来了：全球油价正在下滑，供应过剩已迫在眉睫，但石油巨头却踩下油门全速前进。埃克森和雪佛龙刚创下产量纪录——这得益于二叠纪盆地的页岩开采和在圭亚那的大手笔并购——而壳牌、BP这些曾标榜‘绿色转型’的欧洲巨头，已悄悄放弃减碳梦想，重新全力押注化石燃料。

They claim demand will stay strong until the 2030s—and even the IEA now admits we need new oil and gas projects just to stay flat. But here's the kicker: they’re slashing jobs and costs to keep shareholder payouts juicy, even as oil drops to $60. Is this a masterclass in long-term energy planning—or corporate Stockholm syndrome?

他们声称需求将持续强劲至2030年代——甚至连国际能源署现在都承认，我们需要新油气项目才能维持当前产量。但关键来了：即便油价跌至60美元，他们仍通过裁员和降本来保障股东高分红。这究竟是能源战略的教科书级操作，还是企业级的斯德哥尔摩综合征？

Energy Realist - Geopolitics PhD (能源现实派 — 地缘政治学博士)

Let's be real: energy security trumps sustainability every time there's a crisis. The war in Ukraine, high interest rates, supply chain chaos—suddenly clean energy ROI looks terrible. These companies aren't stupid; they're adapting to reality. The green transition was never going to happen at the pace activists demanded.

说白了：每次危机一来，能源安全永远优先于可持续性。俄乌战争、高利率、供应链混乱——清洁能源的投资回报率瞬间变得惨不忍睹。这些企业并不愚蠢，他们只是在适应现实。能源转型本就不可能按环保人士要求的速度推进。

SolarFan99 - Renewable Engineer (太阳能迷99号 — 可再生能源工程师)

Adapting to reality? Or just protecting legacy profits? These companies spent a decade greenwashing while lobbying against real climate policy. Now they cry ‘energy crisis’ every time regulations bite. Classic corporate gaslighting.

这叫适应现实？还是只是在保护既得利益？这些企业花十年做环保作秀，同时暗中游说反对真正的气候政策。每次监管收紧，就大喊‘能源危机’。典型的公司级煤气灯操纵。

Shareholder Jeff - Portfolio Manager (股东杰夫 — 投资组合经理)

Look, if they keep production up and oil bounces back to $80 in 2026, shareholders win. This glut is temporary. They're playing chess, not checkers.

听着，只要他们维持产量，油价在2026年反弹至80美元，股东就能赢。这次供应过剩只是暂时的。他们是在下象棋，不是跳棋。

ClimateAnxiety_2050 - Urban Planner (气候焦虑2050 — 城市规划师)

We're locking in decades of emissions by greenlighting more drilling. And for what? To extend the fossil fuel era so CEOs can get bonuses? The cost isn't just carbon—it's our future.

我们批准更多钻探，等于锁定未来数十年的碳排放。图什么？就为了延长化石燃料时代让CEO多拿奖金？代价不只是碳排放——还有我们的未来。

Barclays Analyst Betty Jiang (巴克莱分析师贝蒂·江)

All the supply coming to the market is shrinking OPEC’s spare capacity — so there’s a light at end of the tunnel.

大量新增供应正压缩欧佩克的备用产能——隧道尽头已见曙光。

OilWatcher 2025 - Energy Analyst (油市观察员2025 — 能源分析师)

Exactly. The balance is going to tighten. It’s just a matter of when.

正是如此。市场平衡终将收紧，只是时间问题。

DrillBabyDrill - Texas Rancher (钻吧宝贝钻 — 得州牧场主)

Let ‘em pump. We need cheap energy. Wind turbines don’t power tractors.

让他们接着抽。我们需要廉价能源。风力发电机可开不动拖拉机。

SolarFan99 - Renewable Engineer (太阳能迷99号 — 可再生能源工程师)

Tractors can run on biofuels or electricity, grandpa. Your nostalgia for diesel won’t save the aquifer.

拖拉机可以用生物燃料或电力驱动，老古董。你对柴油的怀念可救不了含水层。

Big Oil Is Pumping More Than Ever While Prices Tank—Are They Geniuses or Delusional?

国际石油巨头在油价暴跌时疯狂增产——他们是天才还是自我欺骗？

大石油公司的‘绿色转型’从来不是为了拯救地球——而是一场自救

美国90%的石油还埋在地下——我们到底在慌啥能源危机？