That Viral Climate Study Predicting Economic Collapse? Retracted. So Why’s the Panic Still Spreading?

那个预测经济崩溃的爆款气候研究？被撤稿了。那为何恐慌还在蔓延？

www.thefp.com

A much-hyped study claiming climate change will slash global GDP by 70% by 2100 has been retracted over flawed methodology and questionable assumptions. But here's the kicker: the damage to public discourse is already done.

一项曾被大肆炒作的研究声称，气候变化到2100年将使全球GDP缩水70%，如今却因方法论缺陷和可疑假设被撤稿。但讽刺的是：对公共舆论的伤害早已造成。

The paper fueled headlines predicting doomed economies and drowned nations. Now that it’s discredited, we need to ask: is climate science being weaponized by confirmation bias? Or are we just bad at updating our beliefs?

这篇论文催生了‘经济崩溃、国家沉没’的头条新闻。如今研究作废，我们更该问：气候科学是否正被确认偏误所利用？还是我们本就不擅长更新认知？

Data Skeptic Lawyer (数据怀疑论者律师)

This isn’t just about one retracted paper. It’s a pattern. When high-impact journals publish sensational climate doom, they get clicks and citations. But when the retraction comes? Buried in the supplements. The incentive structure is broken.

这不止是一篇被撤稿的研究。这是个模式。当高影响力期刊发布耸人听闻的气候末日论文时，他们获得了点击量和引用数。但撤稿时呢？只埋在补充材料里。整个激励机制已经崩坏。

Environmental Policy Advocate (环保政策倡导者)

Let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater. The overwhelming consensus on human-driven climate change remains. One flawed study doesn’t erase decades of robust science.

别把孩子和洗澡水一起倒掉。人类活动导致气候变化的压倒性共识依然成立。一项有缺陷的研究，抹不掉数十年扎实的科学积累。

Journalism PhD Student (新闻学博士生)

The media treats every climate study like the final revelation. But science is iterative. Maybe the real failure isn’t the retraction—it’s how journalists skip nuance for drama.

媒体把每项气候研究都当成最后的启示。但科学是逐步推进的。也许真正的问题不是撤稿，而是记者们为戏剧性舍弃了复杂性。

Coastal Homeowner TX (德克萨斯沿海房主)

I don’t care about academic debates. My property flooded twice last year. The water’s rising. Call it what you want, but I’m not waiting for consensus to build a seawall.

我才不管什么学术争论。我家去年淹了两次。海水在上涨。你怎么称呼都行，但我不会等着共识达成再去修海堤。

Skeptical Economist (怀疑论经济学家)

Let’s talk about those GDP numbers. 70% loss? Based on models assuming zero adaptation. Tell that to the air-conditioned skyscrapers in Dubai.

来谈谈那些GDP数据吧。损失70%？模型假设社会完全不适应。那你去跟迪拜那些空调摩天大楼说说看。

Data Skeptic Lawyer (数据怀疑论者律师)

Exactly. These models treat economies as static. But humans innovate, migrate, and adapt. Ignoring that isn’t science—it’s storytelling with spreadsheets.

没错。这些模型把经济当作静止的。但人类会创新、迁移、适应。忽略这些的不是科学，而是用电子表格讲的故事。

Climate Realist PhD (气候理性派博士)

The point isn’t to deny climate change. It’s to demand better science and more honest discourse. Hysteria helps no one—not even the planet.

重点不是否认气候变化。而是要求更严谨的科学和更诚实的讨论。歇斯底里对谁都没好处——甚至包括地球本身。

Policy Intern at UNEP (联合国环境署实习生)

From inside the policy world: we see the same flawed studies get pushed by NGOs pushing agendas. Real adaptation funding? Still stuck in bureaucracy.

从政策内部视角：我们看到，同一批有缺陷的研究被带有议程的非政府组织反复推动。真正的适应资金？仍卡在官僚主义中。

That Viral Climate Study Predicting Economic Collapse? Retracted. So Why’s the Panic Still Spreading?

那个预测经济崩溃的爆款气候研究？被撤稿了。那为何恐慌还在蔓延？

政府关门？无所谓。真正的GDP现在由消费者说了算

ChatGPT刚刚对我撒了谎——还导致一份237页的政府报告被撤回。我们是不是都坐在一颗AI定时炸弹上？